Correlation is not causality – but there are effects

This video triggered a few thoughts and even a smile, beyond the immediate concerns over safety! This week, you’ll do something, and something will happen; you’ll connect the two. The link seems solid, but that link may not exist at all.

The phrase “correlation is not causality” is overused, especially by those newer to data science and statistics. Yes, just because two things change together doesn’t mean one causes the other. However, there often is a cause, it is just may not be the direct link that you think it is. That great new marketing strapline might have got you 5 new leads or 5 new hires, but it could also just be that your competitor stopped advertising this week.

The video makes a point that applies to all of us. We often think our genius and herculean efforts are the sole causes of our success. They often aren’t. Change takes many forces acting together, and what might seem like an immediate impact is usually the result of years of work, often by others. So, never be too quick to take credit, and be wary of those that take sole credit for big changes. Work hard at the change you want to see and stick with it. Find advocates and supporters because you’re unlikely to achieve it alone. You don’t have to be the engine that moves the train; you just need the ear of the driver and a green signal.

Change will happen, but don’t expect that the right people will always get the credit. As Harry S. Truman once said, “It’s amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.”

And that’s usually a good thing.